Gold is at a critical technical juncture with two distinct Elliott Wave scenarios playing out:
Bearish: Wave 2 expanding flat finishing at 3,920.49 → Wave 3 down toward 3,600–3,750
Bullish: Wave 4 triangle (E) completing at 4,163.83 → Wave 5 up toward 4,350+
Bullish Scenario
Bullish Scenario
Gold is displaying a textbook contracting triangle on the 4H timeframe with Wave (E) of the correction approaching completion. The setup is now favoring a BULLISH Wave 5 thrust higher once the triangle fully resolves.
The Structure:
- (A) – Initial downleg
- (B) – Bounce/retracement
- (C) – Lower low into triangle
- (D) – Rally into Fibonacci resistance
- (E) – Final compression leg (currently developing)
Bullish Targets:
- Wave (E) completion target: 4,163.83 (0.382 Fib)
- Wave 5 upside target: 4,350–4,400+ (measured-move extension)
- First resistance: 4,231.63 (prior wave resistance)
- Key support (stop): 4,101.57 (0.618 Fib – triangle invalidation floor)
Confirmation signal: Close above 4,231 on 4H + MACD positive divergence
Bearish Scenario
Gold is showing a critical Elliott Wave structure on the 4H timeframe with the broader picture revealing a massive Wave 2 expanding flat correction that’s entering its final stages. Once this structure completes, expect sharp Wave 3 downside acceleration.
Wave 3 downside target: 3,600–3,500 zone (measured-move from Wave 1)
